Tuesday, March 19, 2013

2012 Payable Benefits

 
The number are a bit different, but the character is unchanged.

Thursday, December 09, 2010

Scheduled Social Security Benefits



According to the SSA annual report, the Trust Fund will be depleted in 2037. If that happens what will happen to people's benefits?

Currently, initial benefits for new retirees go up every year by an amount indexed to the increase in average wages. Since average wages go up faster than inflation, the value of benefits is going up. The chart (with data from suplemetary table VI.F10 of the report) shows this increase. It has gone up in the past. It will continue to go up according to "scheduled benefits" (the blue line, as long as the TF is not depleted. If the TF is depleted as projected by the report, then available funds would be enough for intial benefits to follow the red line.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Useless Comments

Useless comments go here.

Monday, March 01, 2010

Wealth Distribution - Mean and Median by Age



From 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances
4. Family net worth, by selected characteristics of families, 1989–2007 surveys

Mean Net Wealth is higher than median, so the distribution is skewed toward the higher net wealth.

The ratio of mean to median has increased for every group except 75 or more, so the distribution has become more skewed.

Median wealth begins decreasing for people entering the 65+ age group. Mean welath increases even after age 65 in 2007. This changed between 2004 and 2007. The 2004 data (which is also in Table 4), shows mean wealth decreasing after 65.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

More Misleading




Charts of the other two data sets.

Misleading?
















This chart shows data from the 2008 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey
http://www.bls.gov/cex/#data
The data is calculated by dividing household income by the number in the household.

Part of this data was included in a comment on EconomistMom, but only the red highlighted part. The poster said, "We again see that per capita income, expenditures, and “food&fun” are highest for the oldest group ..."

This has got to be one of the grossest examples of misleading use of data that I have ever seen.

Monday, April 06, 2009

SS Projected Income/Cost #1

Another chart for a blog comment at Angry Bear.

The Income/Cost values are calculated from 2006 report Table IV.B1 for combined OASDI. I failed to update to 2008 because I was just looking for a conceptual impact. The magenta line is projected according to Intermediate Cost and the Red is projected according to Low Cost. The idea was to determine what would happen if we chose to limit haw fast we allowed the SS Trust Fund to be used up. The green line is the calculated tax rate required to assure that tax receipts provide a minimum of 85 percent of each years costs. The would start going up in 2025 and would reach 6.7 percent in 2040 (which is the last year IC costs and income are provided).

Notes:
The scale is exagerated since they do not go to zero, but it makes it more readable to match the left and right scales.
I assumed that costs do not change as the tax rate changes because I have only the data from the table, no underlying models.

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